The World Bank’s MENA Economic Monitor report, “Inequality, Uprisings, and Conflict in the Arab World,” considers economic, social, and political factors in relation to increases in violent extremism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Downward economic trends due to low oil prices, conflict, and civil war have contributed to the increase in conflict in the region, but those trends fail to explain fully the reasons behind the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings and subsequent increase in conflict and violence. Upon further examination, measures of wellbeing amongst the middle class better explain the tensions that led to conflict. Negative perceptions of the standard of living, inter-group inequality, and government corruption have contributed to discontent amongst the middle class, which has further incited violence post-2011.
Views of economic inequality amongst the middle class contributed significantly to the events leading up to 2011. Wealth disparity in the MENA region is difficult to accurately measure, due to a lack of reliable data. An unequal distribution of wealth, however, helps to support this theory. Wealth concentration amongst private and state owned firms, at the exclusion of a significant portion of the population, has created class tension. The disproportionate allocation of government subsidies to the lower class further increased this tension.
Wealth disparity alone, however, does not explain the significant rise in conflict. In assessing perceptions of wellbeing, low standards of living and corruption factored heavily in the dissatisfaction amongst the MENA country populations. Surveys reveal widespread grievances amongst the middle class “related to the shortage of quality jobs, dissatisfaction with the quality of public services and government accountability.” The reasons behind this trend can be linked to the failing of authoritarian models of government. Amongst the causes of this failure was corruption within government institutions. Notably, these sentiments have been shared mainly amongst the top 60% of the population. This dissatisfaction has continued to develop in the wake of the Arab Spring uprisings.
Additionally, since 2011, ethnic inequality has emerged as a significant contributing factor in increasing violence. According to recent studies, “ethnic inequality hampers development by generating hatred and envy, barriers to social mobility, a sense of unfairness, and in many cases, conflict.” Observed in light of spatial inequality, countries that display comparatively higher levels of ethnic inequality have since been plunged into civil war. Specifically, “depravation along ethnic, religious, and sectarian lines may enhance group grievances and thus facilitate mobilization for conflict.” By exploiting these common grievances, extremist groups are able to garner public support.
NOTE: This summary is produced by the Rule of Law Collaborative, not by the original author(s).